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Episode 886: Take My Pujols, Please
Date May 18, 2016 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener emails about trading Mike Trout, David Ortiz’s impending retirement, analyzing scouts, judging batted balls on TV, Clayton Kershaw and more. Topics * Trade package for Mike Trout and Albert Pujols * Guessing batted balls on TV * Episode 884 follow-up: David Ortiz's retirement timing * Lowest all-time career WPA for pitchers * Analyzing and assessing scouts * Having Clayton Kershaw pitch more Intro No Doubt, "Magic's in the Makeup" Outro Steppenwolf, "Fat Jack" Banter Ben appeared on MLB Network earlier today and says he "looks like Snooki from the chin up" with the TV makeup that he still has on. Email Questions * Nathan: "How does the discourse surrounding hypothetical Trout trades change if it is framed as a salary dump rather than a prospect gathering venture? The Angels owe Trout and Pujols a combined $260 million after this season ends, would the Angels be willing to accept less in return for Trout if they could unburden themselves of Pujols' contract? If so, how much less is acceptable? Is there a team out there willing to pay Pujols until he is 41 just so they can have Trout in his prime? What would the Angels do with all this money?" * Sam: "When a batter makes contact with a pitch for the duration of the shot prior to when the camera cuts to the ball, how much weight does the experienced baseball TV broadcast viewer place on the following in order to gauge the likely outcome of that contact, foul balls included? 1) The appearance of the ball off the bat, speed and trajectory 2) the sound of the ball off the bat 3) the announcer's words and voice 4) the body language of the batter, pitcher, and catcher 5) the crowd noise 6) other. Note the announcer and crowd sometimes aren't quick enough. If that is the case the question becomes at what point does the viewer form a confident opinion? Also has the viewer learned to specifically ignore any of these? How often are these indicators as perceived by the viewer in direct conflict?" * Eric: "Why would he do that? Wouldn't he want to go out on top with a great final year instead of dwindling away like many stars of the past? The way I see it there are two options. Option 1) Announce his final season, kills it this year, Red Sox have a good year, we all celebrate Ortiz and how great he is. Sure, we question if it could be continued. Option 2) Renounce his retirement, comes back and has a mediocre season, we're all disappointed, say we would have relished him going out on top." * Scott: "Do teams have ways of rating scouts the way scouts rate players? Like is it common knowledge which scouts are substandard in terms of evaluating certain tools. 'Oh that Jim he's always giving 80 speed ratings to 65 runners. If so is there some sort of meta metric wherein front office folks use data to project which scouts will be right about which players or at least retroactively analyze performance to determine which scouts get which assignments? Or are there too many layers of subjectivity at that point?" * Amos: "It strikes me as inefficient that Kershaw pitches basically the same amount as the guys in the Dodgers' fifth spot. Should the Dodgers get Clayton Kershaw more innings, not by going deeper into games but by pitching more often? Three options jump out at me from most likely to least. 1) Kershaw pitches every fourth game but four other guys are still on the rotation 2) Align the #5 starter with Kershaw's throw day and have him go once through the order 3) Kershaw pitches twice as often but is capped at two times through the order. Each of these would get him 20-30% more innings which would be worth well over win per season. What other options might there be? Which would be your preference, if any?" Play Index * Sam uses the Play Index to find out about pitchers who have the all-time lowest WPA. * Kevin Correa is the active leader for all-time lowest career WPA at -11 WPA. * Brian Williams, primarily a reliever, gave up a .334/.411/.506 batting line in high leverage situations. * Jack Fisher has the all-time lowest WPA, -16, for a pitcher. His nickname was 'Fat Jack' and he weighed 215 lbs. Notes * Albert Pujols is owed approximately $160 million through 2021. His long term PECOTA projection is for 4 wins through that time. * Sam thinks when watching on TV the speed and trajectory of the ball off the bat is most important for predicting the outcome of the play. * Teams do rate their own scouts and have a sense of which skill sets are strongest for a given scout. * Ben and Sam dispute the assumption of Amos' question and think that Kershaw is already pitching as much as he could pitch. However Ben would be willing to try having Kershaw appear in games on his throw day. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 886: Take My Pujols, Please * The Blind BABIP Test by Sam Miller * The Blind BABIP Test: Results and Revelations by Sam Miller Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes